The Writing’s On The Great Wall For A China Crash

The Writing’s On The Great Wall For A China Crash
Spread the love

As the saying goes, if you want to know what’s really going on, follow the money. That catchphrase doesn’t just apply to foreign companies and investors backing out of China. It also applies to the Chinese economy.

A No-Confidence Vote

In the midst of widespread economic duress and growing social disruption, following the money trail shows how Chinese investors are voting with their wallets.

Consumer spending is down, and the savings rate is up.

Capital is flowing out of China any way it can, and it all amounts to a definite no-confidence vote for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The CCP Tries to Hide the Facts

In true CCP fashion, the state puts the blame for its failed policies on those who point them out. Anyone who mentions the crumbling economy, for example, is guilty of creating “financial stability.” Even though the CCP would consider prosecuting journalists and economists who report accurately about the falling employment numbers and the high debt levels that plague local governments, China’s worsening economic conditions are too dramatic and widespread to hide.

Of course, financial stability isn’t threatened by people talking about it. It’s the CCP that’s destroying the economy.Even recent history shows that the less involved the Party is in the economy, the better it performs.

The property market and the development sector are perfect examples, though not the only ones. Both continue to be heavily manipulated by the CCP, and both are hemorrhaging value, as financial ruin in flagship companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden contribute to deteriorating conditions in the wider economy. Completed projects that remain unsold are being demolished, work on existing projects is being halted, and other development plans are being canceled, even as the development companies owe billions to creditors.

More Than a Cyclical Downturn

The reality of what’s happening is starting to dawn on the Chinese. Many understand that the current trend is much more than a cyclical downturn, which is typical of capitalist economies. Growth in the second quarter of 2023 was reported to be only 0.8 percent. Still, that statistic is hardly trustworthy in a country that runs on graft and political favors and routinely fudges the numbers. The reported third-quarter gain of 4.9 percent is touted but not believable, given the real estate collapse, falling consumer spending, and lower exports.

Going forward, as the CCP takes more control, a stagnant economy may be the best-case scenario. Jobs in property development, related industries, and manufacturing sectors are all struggling as foreign companies leave China’s shores.

A Stagnating Middle Class

Meanwhile, individual investors, mostly from the middle class—who put their life savings into properties that aren’t even built and likely won’t ever be built—are seeing their wealth evaporate before their eyes as valuations crater.

This stagnation is primarily due to two factors: internal policies and external ones. Internally, an economy based on graft and corruption rather than one based on market signals—such as the price mechanism that allocates resources and assets where they’re most needed in the economy—can’t sustain itself. Thus, turning profitable private enterprises into debt-ridden state-owned enterprises, which is a euphemism for confiscation by the CCP, has destroyed entrepreneurship—the economic engine of China.

Add to that the CCP’s fundamental shift from economic growth to internal security and stability. It’s a vicious cycle wherein more Party control results in less economic activity, financial duress, and civil discontent. The Party then doubles down on more state control and more oppression.

In short, the Party is more concerned with maintaining its grip on power than it is with growing the economy or supporting the middle class.

Companies Are Fleeing ‘Uninvestible’ China

But there are external factors, or consequences, as well.

Over the past year, the flight of Western manufacturers out of China has accelerated. American and European firms are seeing the writing on the wall. They see the world’s growing disenchantment with Beijing’s trade and foreign policies, with many anticipating a decline in economic stability and a greater degree of decoupling from China in the foreseeable future. As a result, they’re relocating their operations out of China to friendlier nations.

‘Friendshoring’ Making Things Worse

This trend is known as “friendshoring.” In essence, countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, India, and Mexico are capturing companies exiting China. They offer less political risk, friendlier trade policies, lower labor costs, and are closer to markets. Barring any major shifts in Chinese leadership, companies leaving China are unlikely to return, which is a growing economic and financial gap for the CCP to fill.

Youth Unemployment Rate at Record High

Other symptoms of the collapse are evident, such as the soaring unemployment rate for young people. It is now a reported 20 percent, but counting those who live with their parents for financial reasons, it’s likely approaching 50 percent. Underemployment makes that picture even worse, which is leading to an angry younger generation. Disaffected youth who see no good options for a better future can be a volatile force to reckon with.

The Race to Exit Chinese Real Estate

All of these reasons and others are why some wealthy Chinese have been selling their China properties as quickly as they can. They’re desperately trying to move their money out of China and invest abroad before the value of their Chinese real estate holdings loses even more value. They know the trajectory of the Chinese economy and want out.

Many are buying real estate in Japan.

It’s not just proximity attracting Chinese investors to Japanese real estate, although that is a significant factor. Another enticement is that owning real estate (or a profitable business) in Japan can lead to long-term or even permanent residency visas. That gives Chinese investors an easy way out of the country to avoid the coming meltdown, as well as avoiding the iron hand of the CCP.

The “China miracle” is no more.

Share This Post

406 Responses to "The Writing’s On The Great Wall For A China Crash"

  1. Howdy, I think your web site may be having web browser compatibility problems. Whenever I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Besides that, wonderful blog.

    Reply
  2. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a co-worker who was doing a little homework on this. And he actually bought me dinner due to the fact that I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending some time to discuss this subject here on your web page.

    Reply
  3. sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm

    Reply
  4. I blog quite often and I seriously thank you for your information. Your article has truly peaked my interest. I will take a note of your blog and keep checking for new information about once per week. I subscribed to your RSS feed as well.

    Reply
  5. Can I simply say what a relief to discover someone that really knows what they are talking about online. You definitely understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people need to check this out and understand this side of your story. I was surprised that you’re not more popular since you certainly possess the gift.

    Reply
  6. After looking at a few of the blog articles on your blog, I seriously like your way of writing a blog. I saved as a favorite it to my bookmark webpage list and will be checking back in the near future. Please visit my web site too and let me know what you think.

    Reply
  7. May I just say what a comfort to find someone who actually understands what they’re talking about over the internet. You certainly understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people have to check this out and understand this side of the story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular given that you certainly have the gift.

    Reply
  8. Having read this I thought it was really informative. I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this short article together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worthwhile.

    Reply
  9. Hi, I do think this is an excellent site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I’m going to come back once again since i have book-marked it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

    Reply
  10. May I just say what a relief to discover somebody that truly understands what they are discussing on the web. You actually understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people have to check this out and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you’re not more popular because you surely have the gift.

    Reply
  11. Having read this I believed it was very informative. I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this article together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

    Reply
  12. Hi, I do believe this is an excellent website. I stumbledupon it 😉 I am going to return once again since i have saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

    Reply
  13. The very next time I read a blog, I hope that it doesn’t disappoint me just as much as this one. After all, I know it was my choice to read, however I actually believed you’d have something useful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you could possibly fix if you were not too busy looking for attention.

    Reply
  14. I would like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in writing this blog. I am hoping to see the same high-grade blog posts by you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own website now 😉

    Reply
  15. You made some really good points there. I checked on the internet to find out more about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this site.

    Reply
  16. sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm

    Reply
  17. You are so cool! I don’t think I’ve read through something like that before. So wonderful to find another person with a few genuine thoughts on this subject matter. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This web site is one thing that is required on the web, someone with a bit of originality.

    Reply
  18. sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm

    Reply
  19. Having read this I believed it was extremely enlightening. I appreciate you finding the time and effort to put this article together. I once again find myself personally spending way too much time both reading and leaving comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile.

    Reply
  20. Howdy! I could have sworn I’ve visited this website before but after going through many of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m certainly delighted I found it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back regularly.

    Reply
  21. I blog quite often and I genuinely thank you for your information. This great article has truly peaked my interest. I’m going to bookmark your website and keep checking for new details about once per week. I subscribed to your RSS feed too.

    Reply
  22. You are so awesome! I don’t suppose I have read through anything like that before. So wonderful to discover another person with unique thoughts on this subject matter. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This web site is one thing that is needed on the web, someone with some originality.

    Reply
  23. Hi there, I think your web site could be having internet browser compatibility problems. When I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in I.E., it has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Apart from that, fantastic website.

    Reply
  24. After I originally commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the same comment. Is there an easy method you can remove me from that service? Many thanks.

    Reply
  25. When I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you can remove me from that service? Cheers.

    Reply
  26. The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it won’t fail me as much as this one. After all, I know it was my choice to read through, however I truly thought you’d have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of crying about something you can fix if you weren’t too busy seeking attention.

    Reply
  27. After looking at a number of the blog posts on your blog, I really appreciate your way of writing a blog. I saved it to my bookmark webpage list and will be checking back soon. Take a look at my web site as well and let me know your opinion.

    Reply
  28. This is the right webpage for everyone who hopes to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic which has been discussed for years. Wonderful stuff, just great.

    Reply
  29. I was pretty pleased to find this web site. I need to to thank you for your time for this fantastic read!! I definitely appreciated every bit of it and i also have you book marked to look at new stuff in your web site.

    Reply
  30. An interesting discussion is worth comment. I believe that you ought to publish more about this subject, it might not be a taboo subject but generally people do not discuss such topics. To the next! Many thanks.

    Reply
  31. May I simply just say what a relief to uncover somebody who truly understands what they are discussing online. You definitely realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people need to read this and understand this side of the story. I was surprised that you are not more popular given that you surely possess the gift.

    Reply
  32. A motivating discussion is definitely worth comment. I think that you need to write more about this subject, it might not be a taboo subject but generally people don’t speak about these issues. To the next! Kind regards!

    Reply
  33. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Many thanks, However I am encountering problems with your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why I can’t subscribe to it. Is there anybody having identical RSS issues? Anyone that knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanks!!

    Reply
  34. Having read this I believed it was rather informative. I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this content together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and leaving comments. But so what, it was still worth it.

    Reply
  35. You are so awesome! I do not think I’ve read a single thing like that before. So wonderful to find somebody with a few genuine thoughts on this subject. Really.. many thanks for starting this up. This site is one thing that’s needed on the web, someone with a bit of originality.

    Reply
  36. I’m impressed, I must say. Seldom do I come across a blog that’s both educative and interesting, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is an issue that not enough men and women are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this in my hunt for something relating to this.

    Reply
  37. Having read this I thought it was extremely informative. I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this informative article together. I once again find myself personally spending a significant amount of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it.

    Reply
  38. This is the right webpage for everyone who wants to understand this topic. You know so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I personally would want to…HaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a subject that has been discussed for years. Great stuff, just great.

    Reply
  39. I’m impressed, I have to admit. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both equally educative and engaging, and let me tell you, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The problem is something that too few people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy I came across this in my search for something relating to this.

    Reply
  40. Can I just say what a relief to uncover somebody who truly knows what they are talking about on the net. You certainly understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. A lot more people must check this out and understand this side of the story. It’s surprising you aren’t more popular given that you definitely have the gift.

    Reply
  41. After looking into a number of the articles on your blog, I truly appreciate your technique of blogging. I book marked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back in the near future. Please check out my web site too and tell me how you feel.

    Reply
  42. I really love your blog.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you make this web site yourself? Please reply back as I’m planning to create my own personal blog and would like to know where you got this from or what the theme is named. Appreciate it!

    Reply
  43. I really love your website.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you develop this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m hoping to create my own website and would like to know where you got this from or exactly what the theme is named. Kudos!

    Reply
  44. sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm

    Reply
  45. Hi there! This post could not be written much better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept talking about this. I’ll forward this information to him. Fairly certain he’s going to have a very good read. Many thanks for sharing!

    Reply
  46. sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm

    Reply
  47. sex nhật hiếp dâm trẻ em ấu dâm buôn bán vũ khí ma túy bán súng sextoy chơi đĩ sex bạo lực sex học đường tội phạm tình dục chơi les đĩ đực người mẫu bán dâm

    Reply
  48. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Many thanks, However I am going through difficulties with your RSS. I don’t understand why I am unable to join it. Is there anybody getting similar RSS problems? Anybody who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanks.

    Reply
  49. An interesting discussion is worth comment. I do think that you should publish more on this subject matter, it may not be a taboo matter but usually folks don’t talk about these subjects. To the next! Best wishes.

    Reply
  50. After checking out a number of the blog posts on your blog, I truly like your technique of blogging. I book marked it to my bookmark site list and will be checking back in the near future. Please check out my website too and tell me what you think.

    Reply
  51. Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site before but after browsing through many of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m certainly delighted I found it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back regularly!

    Reply
  52. You’re so interesting! I don’t believe I have read through a single thing like that before. So good to find someone with unique thoughts on this subject matter. Really.. many thanks for starting this up. This website is one thing that is required on the internet, someone with some originality.

    Reply
  53. Hi, I do believe this is an excellent web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I’m going to come back once again since I saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

    Reply
  54. Hi there! This post couldn’t be written much better! Going through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He always kept talking about this. I am going to send this information to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

    Reply
  55. Howdy, I do believe your blog could possibly be having browser compatibility issues. When I take a look at your site in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in IE, it has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Besides that, great blog!

    Reply
  56. Hi there! This article couldn’t be written much better! Going through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He continually kept preaching about this. I will send this post to him. Fairly certain he’s going to have a good read. Many thanks for sharing!

    Reply
  57. This is the perfect web site for everyone who hopes to understand this topic. You realize a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I actually would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a fresh spin on a subject which has been written about for ages. Great stuff, just great.

    Reply
  58. After looking over a few of the blog posts on your web page, I seriously like your technique of blogging. I book marked it to my bookmark site list and will be checking back in the near future. Please visit my web site too and let me know what you think.

    Reply
  59. After I initially commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a means you can remove me from that service? Thanks.

    Reply
  60. When I originally commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. Is there a way you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks.

    Reply
  61. An interesting discussion is definitely worth comment. I do think that you should publish more about this subject matter, it may not be a taboo subject but typically people do not speak about such subjects. To the next! Best wishes.

    Reply
  62. I’m amazed, I must say. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s both equally educative and engaging, and let me tell you, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The issue is something that too few men and women are speaking intelligently about. I am very happy that I came across this in my search for something concerning this.

    Reply
  63. Hi, I do think this is a great web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I will revisit yet again since I saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

    Reply
  64. Having read this I thought it was very enlightening. I appreciate you finding the time and effort to put this informative article together. I once again find myself personally spending a significant amount of time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worthwhile.

    Reply
  65. Having read this I thought it was rather informative. I appreciate you finding the time and effort to put this short article together. I once again find myself spending way too much time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

    Reply
  66. I blog quite often and I really thank you for your information. This article has truly peaked my interest. I am going to book mark your site and keep checking for new details about once a week. I opted in for your RSS feed as well.

    Reply
  67. You are so cool! I do not suppose I’ve truly read through something like this before. So nice to discover somebody with a few original thoughts on this issue. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This website is something that is needed on the internet, someone with some originality.

    Reply
  68. Hi! I could have sworn I’ve visited this site before but after browsing through some of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m definitely happy I came across it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back frequently.

    Reply
  69. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I am hoping to view the same high-grade blog posts from you in the future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own website now 😉

    Reply
  70. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a friend who had been doing a little research on this. And he actually ordered me dinner because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to talk about this issue here on your website.

    Reply
  71. Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Looking at this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept preaching about this. I most certainly will forward this post to him. Pretty sure he will have a very good read. Thanks for sharing!

    Reply
  72. Right here is the right site for anyone who wants to understand this topic. You understand so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a subject that has been written about for decades. Excellent stuff, just excellent.

    Reply
  73. A motivating discussion is definitely worth comment. I do believe that you should write more on this topic, it might not be a taboo subject but generally people don’t talk about these issues. To the next! Many thanks.

    Reply
  74. When I originally commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a means you are able to remove me from that service? Appreciate it.

    Reply
  75. You’re so interesting! I do not believe I have read something like this before. So good to discover another person with a few original thoughts on this subject. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This site is something that is required on the internet, someone with a bit of originality.

    Reply
  76. I’m amazed, I must say. Seldom do I come across a blog that’s equally educative and entertaining, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something which not enough folks are speaking intelligently about. I am very happy that I came across this during my search for something regarding this.

    Reply
  77. I blog frequently and I genuinely thank you for your information. This article has really peaked my interest. I’m going to bookmark your site and keep checking for new information about once per week. I opted in for your Feed as well.

    Reply
  78. I blog quite often and I seriously thank you for your content. This great article has really peaked my interest. I will bookmark your site and keep checking for new information about once a week. I subscribed to your Feed too.

    Reply
  79. This is the perfect webpage for everyone who wants to find out about this topic. You understand so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a subject that’s been written about for a long time. Wonderful stuff, just great.

    Reply
  80. Can I just say what a comfort to find someone that actually understands what they’re talking about online. You actually realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people need to read this and understand this side of the story. It’s surprising you aren’t more popular because you surely possess the gift.

    Reply
  81. After checking out a few of the blog posts on your web page, I truly appreciate your way of writing a blog. I added it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Please check out my website too and tell me your opinion.

    Reply
  82. Hi, I do think your site could possibly be having internet browser compatibility issues. When I take a look at your website in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in I.E., it has some overlapping issues. I just wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Other than that, fantastic site!

    Reply
  83. I blog frequently and I genuinely thank you for your information. Your article has truly peaked my interest. I’m going to bookmark your website and keep checking for new information about once per week. I opted in for your RSS feed too.

    Reply
  84. I blog frequently and I truly appreciate your information. This article has really peaked my interest. I will take a note of your blog and keep checking for new details about once a week. I subscribed to your Feed as well.

    Reply
  85. I must thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this site. I am hoping to view the same high-grade content by you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my very own blog now 😉

    Reply
  86. An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I think that you should write more on this subject matter, it may not be a taboo matter but typically people do not discuss these issues. To the next! Kind regards.

    Reply
  87. Howdy! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before but after going through some of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Anyhow, I’m definitely pleased I found it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

    Reply
  88. When I initially left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on whenever a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the same comment. There has to be an easy method you are able to remove me from that service? Cheers.

    Reply
  89. After exploring a few of the blog posts on your site, I honestly appreciate your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark webpage list and will be checking back soon. Please check out my web site too and tell me your opinion.

    Reply
  90. Having read this I believed it was really informative. I appreciate you finding the time and energy to put this article together. I once again find myself personally spending a significant amount of time both reading and leaving comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

    Reply
  91. I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this site. I really hope to view the same high-grade blog posts by you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own blog now 😉

    Reply
  92. I must thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this website. I am hoping to check out the same high-grade content from you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own, personal site now 😉

    Reply
  93. Se seu marido excluiu o histórico de bate – Papo, você também pode usar ferramentas de recuperação de dados para recuperar as mensagens excluídas. Aqui estão algumas ferramentas de recuperação de dados comumente usadas:

    Reply

Post Comment