What a second Trump term could mean for US oil and gas

What a second Trump term could mean for US oil and gas
Spread the love

“Nothing is more uncertain than the general public,” the Roman orator Cicero said, and it is as true now as it was in 62 BCE. The next US presidential election is still almost 10 months away, on 5 November, and we can expect plenty of twists and turns in the race before then. As the polling stands, however, former President Donald Trump is well-placed to secure a second term. Prediction markets, which have no supernatural powers but usefully summarise the conventional wisdom, have Trump as the clear favourite to enter the White House a little over year from now.

A change of administration would mean a radical shift in energy policy for the US. Setting aside for now the question of the consequences for low-carbon sectors, which will be the focus of a future Energy Pulse, a second Trump administration would also have significant implications for the oil and gas industry.

A US president’s powers to affect oil and gas production one way or the other are often over-estimated. President Joe Biden said on the campaign trail in 2020: “I would transition from the oil industry… [it] has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.” But during his administration US crude production has hit a new record high, at over 13 million barrels per day. (To be fair, the administration did shift its stance in 2022 to encourage increased production, but its rhetoric in that direction has not had any material impact, either.)

However, there are levers that a second Trump administration could pull to help the oil and gas industry and have a positive effect on production at the margin. In his campaigning, Trump has identified boosting oil and gas output as a priority. He has said in public appearances that he wanted to be “a dictator for one day” to address two issues: “for drilling and for closing the border.”

Those comments point to the use of executive actions and rule changes to lighten the regulatory burden on oil and gas companies. The Environmental Protection Agency last month announced new rules to cut emissions from oil and gas operations, including a ban on routine flaring at new wells, requirements for comprehensive monitoring for methane leaks and new standards for equipment, such as controllers, pumps and storage tanks. A Trump administration could be expected to scrap all of those provisions.

Other climate-focused policy initiatives would also come under pressure. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been working on the final versions of its new rules on climate-related disclosures, including emissions reporting, which are scheduled to be published this year. The SEC is an independent agency, but a President Trump would be able to overturn the current majority of Democratic appointees and block those rules.

On some issues, the policy pendulum has been swinging back and forth with each change of administration. The first Trump administration in 2020 reformed the regulations for environmental approvals in 2020, with the aim of expediting infrastructure projects including oil and gas pipelines and LNG plants. Some of the key changes in those reforms were reversed by the Biden administration in 2022, and last July the White House Council on Environmental Quality proposed further changes. A second Trump administration would be likely to bring back the 2020 framework.

Leasing of federal lands and waters for oil and gas development is another area that would be set to change. The America First Policy Institute, a thinktank that employs several former officials from the first Trump administration, says restrictions on leasing under President Biden represent a “war on American energy”.

The administration has slowed the pace of onshore lease sales, and imposed new restrictions on oil and gas development in Alaska, including the cancellation of issued leases. In the Gulf of Mexico, the administration has proposed the smallest possible lease sale programme that is consistent with its goals for offshore wind development under the terms of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

A change of approach on regulations and leasing would certainly be welcomed by many – although not all – in the US oil and gas industry and might squeeze out a little extra production. But US Lower 48 crude and condensate production has risen by about 2 million barrels per day during the Biden administration. If federal policy has been holding back growth, it has not been very effective. Almost half of that increase has come from New Mexico, where most development is on federal lands.

US oil production growth is slowing now, but not because of anything to do with government policy. The slowdown has been driven by crude prices declining while oilfield services costs have remained resilient following strong increases in 2022-23. West Texas Intermediate crude has dropped from a peak of US$95 a barrel at the end of September to a range of US$70-US$75 a barrel over the last six weeks or so.

A more active leasing programme could potentially boost production, but only in the longer term. It would be unrealistic to expect a change of administration to make a large and rapid difference to the supply side for US oil and gas.

In fact, a future Trump administration could have a larger and more lasting impact on the demand side. For oil, Wood Mackenzie’s base case forecasts projects that US demand will peak around 2025-27, and then decline slowly as consumption is eroded by increased fuel efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles.

Trump has been vocal in his opposition to EVs, and could be expected both to scrap regulations that encourage manufacturers to make them, and to push for an end to the tax credits that support sales. He would face obstacles in that effort: many states will continue to back electrification, and manufacturers have committed to making the shift to EVs. But to the extent that he is able to slow that transition, Trump will be able to help US oil demand stay higher for longer.

On gas, similarly, a President Trump would be able to take actions to help support demand. The Biden administration, under pressure from climate campaigners, is reviewing its criteria for deciding whether a gas export project is in the national interest. The Department of Energy already tightened its rules on permit awards last year, and now looks likely to add further restrictions related to greenhouse gas emissions.

Any change in the rules would most likely not stop new LNG export plants that have already been granted permits and are under construction. But future projects that have not reached final investment decision could be affected. A Trump administration could be expected to be more supportive of developers, allowing more export projects and ultimately boosting international sales of US gas.

We could also see more regulations and incentives that support fossil fuel consumption. One possibility would be a national version of the subsidies introduced in Texas to support gas-fired power generation.

Share This Post

3 Responses to "What a second Trump term could mean for US oil and gas"

  1. Anavar and Testosterone Cycle Overview

    Learn about Anavar and Testosterone cycles, including dosage, benefits, and side
    effects.

    Dosage

    Anavar is typically taken in dosages of 10-50 mg daily, divided into 2-3
    weekly doses. Testosterone cycles may range from
    4 to 6 weeks, with dosages varying based on individual goals and medical guidance.

    Benefits

    Increased muscle strength and size

    Enhanced physical performance

    Improved mental clarity and focus

    Boosted immune function

    Faster recovery rates

    Side Effects

    Acne or skin irritation

    Edema (swelling)

    Baldness in women

    Deepening of voice in women

    Nausea or gastrointestinal discomfort

    Consult a healthcare professional before starting any supplementation to
    ensure safety and effectiveness.

    Anavar and Test Cycle – Dosage, Benefits and Side Effects Overview

    Are you looking to enhance your muscle growth, strength, and overall performance?
    Anavar and Testosterone together form a powerful combination known as the “Test and Anavar Cycle.” This article will provide you
    with a comprehensive overview of this cycle, including dosage guidelines, benefits, and potential side effects.

    What is Testosterone?

    Testosterone is a hormone produced naturally by the
    human body. It plays a crucial role in muscle growth, fat metabolism, and overall health.

    This hormone is a type of androgen and is essential for maintaining masculine characteristics.
    While it can be obtained from supplements or injectable forms, its natural production can also be enhanced through proper diet, exercise, and lifestyle.

    Different Types of Testosterone Steroids

    Testosterone steroids come in various forms, each with unique properties and effects.
    Some common types include:

    Testosterone Propionate: A fast-acting steroid with a short
    ester period, ideal for frequent injections.

    Testosterone Enanthate: A longer-lasting form that stays active
    in the body for several weeks.

    Testosterone Cypionate: One of the most commonly used steroids
    due to its moderate duration and stability.

    How Does Testosterone Function?

    Testosterone functions by binding to androgen receptors in various tissues, including the muscles, bones, and
    brain. This binding stimulates a cascade of reactions that promote muscle growth,
    fat loss, and overall health. By activating specific genes, testosterone helps in building lean muscle mass, enhancing strength, and improving
    cognitive function.

    Benefits of Testosterone

    The benefits of testosterone are numerous and include:

    Muscle Growth: Stimulates protein synthesis, leading to muscle hypertrophy.

    Red Blood Cell Production: Boosts oxygen transport, improving endurance performance.

    Bone Density: Enhances calcium retention and bone strength.

    Libido: Improves sexual health and desire.

    Cognitive Function: Supports memory and attention span.

    Possible Testosterone Side Effects

    While testosterone is beneficial, it can also lead to side effects.
    These include:

    Acne: Breakouts may occur due to increased androgen activity.

    Hair Loss: Pattern baldness may develop in some individuals.

    Mood Swings: Hormonal changes can lead to irritability
    or moodiness.

    Heart Issues: High doses can strain the cardiovascular system.

    Liver Damage: Overuse may cause hepatotoxicity in some users.

    Legal Alternative to Testosterone

    Instead of using steroids, consider natural alternatives like Testo-Max by
    Crazy Bulk. This supplement contains ingredients that support testosterone production naturally, helping you achieve similar benefits
    without the risks associated with synthetic steroids.
    Testo-Max is a safe and legal option for fitness enthusiasts.

    What is Anavar?

    Anavar is an oral steroid that was first developed as a medication to treat conditions like
    angina and hypertension. It has since become popular among bodybuilders and athletes due to
    its unique effects. Anavar is a derivative of Dihydrotestosterone (DHT),
    which means it works differently from other steroids by acting on different hormone receptors.

    How Does Anavar Function?

    Anavar functions by inhibiting the enzyme 5α-reductase, which
    converts testosterone into dihydrotestosterone (DHT).
    By reducing DHT levels, Anavar increases free
    testosterone in the bloodstream. This higher level of testosterone leads to increased muscle retention, enhanced recovery,
    and improved metabolic function.

    Benefits of Anavar

    The benefits of Anavar are both performance-enhancing and health-promoting.

    Some key advantages include:

    Muscle Retention: Helps maintain lean muscle mass during cutting phases.

    Bone Density: Strengthens bones and reduces fracture risk.

    Improved Recovery: Accelerates post-workout recovery and muscle repair.

    Enhanced Strength: Leads to increased strength and power output.

    Libido: Boosts sexual health and desire.

    Possible Anavar Side Effects

    Anavar, like all steroids, carries some side effects. Common issues include:

    Hair Loss: May cause scalp hair thinning or pattern baldness.

    Acne: Breakouts may occur on the face and body.

    Mood Changes: Can lead to irritability or mood swings.

    Liver Damage: High doses can cause hepatotoxicity.

    Testicular Atrophy: Prolonged use may shrink testicles and reduce natural testosterone production.

    Legal Alternative to Anavar

    For those concerned about the side effects of Anavar, consider using
    a natural alternative like Anvarol by Crazy Bulk. This supplement is designed
    to mimic the benefits of Anavar without the harmful side effects.
    Anvarol contains ingredients that support muscle retention and recovery, making it an excellent choice for fitness enthusiasts seeking natural performance enhancement.

    Test and Anavar Cycle

    The Test and Anavar Cycle involves combining testosterone with
    Anavar to maximize their combined effects. This cycle is
    popular among bodybuilders aiming to build muscle mass, enhance strength,
    and improve recovery. The key to success lies in proper dosage and cycling patterns.

    Test and Anavar Cycle Benefits

    The benefits of the Test and Anvar Cycle are significant and include:

    Enhanced Muscle Growth: Both supplements work synergistically to promote lean muscle mass.

    Fat Loss: The combination can help shed excess body fat while maintaining muscle.

    Increased Strength: Users often experience significant strength gains across various exercises.

    Improved Recovery: Faster recovery between workouts and
    better muscle repair.

    Enhanced Libido: Both supplements can improve sexual health and desire.

    Possible Side Effects Of A Testosterone and Anavar Cycle

    While the benefits are substantial, the Test and Anavar Cycle also carries some potential side effects.

    Common issues include:

    Hair Thinning: Increased DHT suppression may lead to hair loss.

    Increased Blood Pressure: Both steroids can strain the cardiovascular system.

    Increased Cholesterol Levels: High doses can negatively
    affect lipid profiles.

    Kidney Damage: Anavar’s effects on androgens can stress the kidneys over time.

    Conclusion

    The Test and Anavar Cycle is a powerful combination that can help you
    achieve impressive results in muscle growth, fat loss, and overall performance.
    However, it’s crucial to approach this cycle with caution. Proper dosage, cycling patterns, and regular monitoring of health
    indicators are essential to minimize side effects and maximize benefits.
    Always consult with a healthcare professional before starting any new supplement regimen to ensure safety and effectiveness.

    Related Posts

    Can You Fly With Anavar? Essential Tips for Traveling with Supplements

    How to Take Anavar for Best Results: A Comprehensive Guide

    Can Anavar Cause Sore Nipples? Understanding Potential Side Effects

    Categories

    Important Information

    Bodybuilding Supplements

    Fitness and Health

    Reply
  2. I loved even more than you will get done right here. The picture is nice, and your writing is stylish, but you seem to be rushing through it, and I think you should give it again soon. I’ll probably do that again and again if you protect this hike.

    Reply

Post Comment